Methodology

How the data is gathered, and what it can and cannot tell you.

Everything GetSignal publishes starts as a public filing. This page sets out which filings we read, where we get them, what we calculate ourselves, how current the data is, and the limits that come with each dataset. The figures we work out ourselves are defined under What we calculate, and every estimate is labelled where it appears.

What we read

  • Corporate insider trades. SEC Form 4, filed by officers, directors and ten percent owners. Since Sarbanes-Oxley these are due within two business days of the transaction.
  • Congressional trades. Periodic transaction reports filed under the STOCK Act by members of the House and Senate.
  • Institutional holdings. Form 13F, filed each quarter by managers with $100 million or more in US-listed stocks and similar securities, plus Schedule 13D and 13G, filed by anyone who owns more than 5% of a company.
  • Earnings and analyst activity. Reported results against consensus estimates, ratings changes and price targets set by third-party analysts.
  • Reporting. Where we show a news story we name the outlet and link out. We publish from a short list of named wire services and financial newsrooms and we do not paraphrase their reporting in our own voice.

Where it comes from

Every record here originates in a public filing: SEC EDGAR, the SEC's public filing system, for Form 4, 13F and Schedule 13D and 13G, and the House and Senate disclosure systems for STOCK Act reports. We read EDGAR directly to confirm records and to link each one back to the original document, and we license market data from institutional providers. Prices may be delayed.

A data provider is a convenience, not an authority. Where the filing itself is the record, we link to it so you can check us.

What we calculate

These figures are worked out rather than filed, and each is defined here so you can judge it.

  • Disclosure lag. The time between the date a transaction took place and the date it was disclosed to the public. For Congress it is counted in calendar days, against the 45-day limit; for a corporate insider's Form 4, in business days (Saturdays, Sundays and federal holidays are skipped), against the two-business-day deadline. We compute it per filing and show the median per person, the middle value, so one very late report does not move it. It is a measurement of the filing, not a judgement about the filer: a long lag is often lawful, and the legal deadlines differ by filing type.
  • Since the trade. The stock's move from the trade date to the latest close we hold, in percent. Beside it we print the S&P 500's move over the same days and the gap between the two in percentage points: +10 pts means the stock beat the S&P 500 by 10 points, -10 pts means it trailed by 10. Where we hold only the gap, as on the President's page, the gap is the figure shown. It describes the stock after a disclosed trade, not the member's result: a filing gives an amount band, not a price, so it cannot say what anyone made. After a sale, a rise means the stock kept climbing after the member sold. For an option it is the underlying stock's move, not the option's value. The date in brackets is the day we took the figures, which can fall on a weekend; they run to the most recent close our data held that day. Where a ticker stopped trading, the figures end at its last close and the row says when its price history ends, or only that it ends earlier where our data holds no prices for it. On member pages and the trades browser, where the company trades on under a new ticker, the figures follow it there and the row names the new ticker; company pages end them at the old ticker's last close. A row shows n/a where we hold no figure for it: an asset with no market price, such as a private fund or a bond, and sometimes a listed share our data carries no figure for. The leaderboard takes every stock a member bought in the last 365 days, works out the gap in points for each purchase, and ranks members by the median of those gaps, so one big winner cannot carry a row. Not investment advice.
  • Filed late. A chip on a Congress trade disclosed more than 45 days after the trade, the limit the STOCK Act sets. We show it only on reports we have checked against the original in the House or Senate record, because the raw dates can mislead: a first report, a trade made before the member took office or an amendment can look late when it is not. The checked reports are counted on late Congress trade disclosures.
  • Beat, Miss or In line. The verdict on a quarter's earnings per share, and on its revenue, against the analysts' consensus estimate at the time. More than 1.5% above the estimate is a beat, more than 1.5% below is a miss, and anything within 1.5% either way is in line. Where a company reported a GAAP figure against an adjusted consensus, the row says so, because a one-time gain or charge can move the two measures apart. An estimate is a forecast made by analysts, not a company target.
  • Importance (in the app). Each event gets one of four levels, Routine, Update, Notable or Major, from fixed rules on its type and size. For example, an open-market insider buy of $5 million or more is Major; stock awards, option exercises and insider sales under $5 million are Routine; any purchase by a member of Congress is at least Notable. A filer's first buy of a stock in 12 months moves up one level, though never to Major. Each alert rule's minimum importance decides which levels push. It is not a rating of a security, a prediction or advice.

Estimated net worth

Some member pages carry an estimated net worth. It is the one figure on those pages that nobody filed. No member of Congress discloses a net worth and no filing contains this number: it is the output of a model we license, and it is neither our measurement nor the filer's. We show it because it gives scale to the holdings printed beside it, and we label it as an estimate everywhere it appears.

  • What it is built from. Congressional financial disclosure reports every asset and liability in a band rather than an amount. The model takes a value within each band, marks the stock holdings it tracks to the latest price we hold, and nets the liabilities. It reaches exactly as far as the disclosures reach and no further.
  • Why it moves with the market. The tracked stock holdings inside the figure are carried at the latest price rather than at the value written on the filing, so an estimate can change on a day when nothing was filed and nothing was traded. Where we track no holdings for a member, nothing in the figure follows a market and it changes only when a new disclosure arrives.
  • What it leaves out. Anything a filer is not required to report is not in it, and a personal residence and the federal salary are not on the disclosure at all. It is not a personal balance sheet, it is not audited, and it is not a statement of what anyone is worth.
  • How wrong it can be. The largest band on a disclosure is open ended, so for a member with large holdings in it the estimate can miss by a wide margin. Member pages print two significant figures for that reason: about $3.1 million rather than $3,091,000. Read it as an order of magnitude, not as a measurement.
  • Its date. It carries the date of the snapshot the page was built from, which every member page prints at the foot. The filings behind it are annual and periodic, so the disclosed part of the estimate changes only when a new report is filed, while the priced part changes with the market.

It is never read off a disclosure, and it should not be quoted as a statement of what a named person is worth.

How current it is

The app is updated continuously through the trading day, and alerts fire within minutes of a filing reaching us. Pages on this website are built from a snapshot and each one carries the date of that snapshot. If you need the live picture, that is what the app is for.

Known limits

Every dataset here has a shape you should know about before you read anything into it.

  • STOCK Act filings are late by design and imprecise by design. Members report within a window measured in weeks, not days, and they disclose value ranges rather than exact amounts. A trade you see today may be over a month old, and "$1,001 to $15,000" is the filing, not our rounding. The reports filed after the 45-day limit are counted, by chamber, on late Congress trade disclosures.
  • 13F is a quarter behind and shows only part of the picture. It is due within 45 days of the quarter's end, so a position may have been sold before you ever see it. It covers long US-listed holdings and does not show short positions, cash, or most non-US assets.
  • Not every Form 4 is a decision. Awards, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld to cover tax all file on the same form as an open-market purchase or sale. We separate them, and we only treat open-market transactions as buying and selling.
  • Filings get amended. Corrections and restatements are normal. When an amendment supersedes a record we follow it, which means a figure can legitimately change after it was first published.
  • Analyst ratings are third-party opinions. Price targets belong to the firm that issued them. They are not ours and we do not endorse them.
  • Disclosure is not causation. Nothing here establishes that anyone knew anything, and we do not present it as though it does.

Corrections

If something looks wrong, tell us at [email protected] with a link to the page. We check the claim against the primary filing and correct it at the source, so the fix reaches the app and this site together. See contact.

GetSignal is information, not investment advice. See about for who publishes this and terms for the legal position.